24 September 2020 its entry into the Refrigerator product category with the launch of 25 new models of Direct Cool, Frost Free, and Side by Side refrigerators. Going ahead, the company aims to launch 25 additional refrigerator models and a new range of dishwashers by Diwali 2020. Assuming INR10k as the price of the base model (190-liter Direct Cool refrigerator) implies a 1213% discount on a like-to-like basis v/s products offered by key brands such as LG, Samsung, and Whirlpool. The new products launched would be available across pan-India Lloyd brand stores, offline dealers, and Lloyd online e-stores. Top 3 players in the Refrigerator category LG, Samsung, and Whirlpool occupy ~80% market share. Videocons exit has resulted in market share gains for the Top 3 players, with Whirlpool being the biggest beneficiary owing to an attractive pricing point).
Cost increase in the past three years has been pegged at 1318 % given zero advertisement expenses, while revenue growth has always exceeded 20 %, providing long-term operating leverage to the company. 35 % of buyers are from tier-1 cities, while 60 % of suppliers come from the top eight metros (where the paying supplier IndiaMART operates in a negative working capital cycle, led by upfront collections from sellers on the platform. However, we are confident of strong fundamental growth in b) the need for out-of-the-circle buyers, c) a strong network effect, d) >70 % market share in the underlying industry, e) the ability to increase ARPU on account of low price sensitivity, and f) high operating leverage. Led by market growth, the company has been able to grow the number of paid sellers at a CAGR of 15 % over the past three years.
17 September 2020 We analyzed details of Power Grid (PWGR)s tariff-based competitive bidding (TBCB) projects from their annual reports. At an aggregate level, in our view, PWGR should be able to generate ~14% equity IRR (assuming a debt-to-equity commissioned TBCB projects varies in the range of 227%. TBCB currently remains small in the overall context (3% FY20 PAT; 5% gross block). However, with increased awarding at the interstate/intrastate level on a TBCB basis, its pie would eventually grow. Over the past one year, PWGR has won ~7 projects on a TBCB basis. We expect profits from TBCB projects to rise to INR7.8b in FY23 from INR3.7b as new projects get commissioned. PWGR also seeks to monetize its TBCB assets through the InvIT mode and has acquired an in-principle approval from the board and the cabinet. PWGRs eight commissioned projects account for a gross block of ~INR125b.
It has the best positioned portfolio, with HF Deluxe in the Economy segment, Splendor in Executive 100cc, and Super Splendor / Glamour in Executive 125cc, covering all the price points with multiple variants. With an apt product portfolio for the rural market, the highest brand value, and a strong distribution network, Hero is best placed to benefit from low penetration and ongoing momentum in the rural economy. HMCLs market share in Executive 100cc was at ~87% in FY20 (v/s 84% in FY19), and with the launch of the new Passion, it has gained further market share to 90% in FY21YTD. HMCLs market share declined by 700bp to ~51% in FY20 in the 125cc segment post the launch of the Bajaj Pulsar 125. However, post the launch of the new Super Splendor and Glamour, it regained market share by 225bps FY21YTD.
SAILs 1QFY21 result was weak, as expected, with EBITDA loss of ~INR4.0b posted due to weak domestic demand and prices. SAIL guided for improvement in longs steel prices, led by demand In 2QFY21, raw material cost is likely to benefit from decline in coking coal prices. SAILs gross debt stood at INR544b at 1QFY21-end; however, it declined to INR498b at Aug-end owing to improved sales and liquidation of inventory. With improved pricing, lower coking coal costs, and better operating leverage, we expect SAIL to record EBITDA/t in excess of INR6,000/t in 2QFY21. As a result, SAILs finished steel inventory, which stood at 1.65mt in Jun20, declined to 1.23mt at Aug-end. In 1QFY21, SAIL sold 2.2mt of steel, of which exports stood at 0.5mt. SAIL guided for improvement in longs steel prices, led by demand improvement INR10,800/t in Aug20.
16 September 2020 Detergents, Tea, Oral Care, etc. Of the remaining 20% portfolio, 15% declined by 45% while the rest 5% declined by 69% during the quarter. Skin Care the largest segment of the remaining 20% portfolio performed poorly in 1QFY21, but has started to recover consistently since June (although it is yet to turn positive YoY). With the Ice-Cream business being a washout in 1QFY21, it contributed significantly to business decline in the quarter. However, the Ice-Cream business is much less salient in the base quarter of 2QFY21 (2QFY20) v/s 1QFY21. Therefore, 2QFY21 is not expected to be as drastically impacted by the Ice-Cream business as 1QFY21. The GSK business was affected by temporary plant shutdowns due to COVID- led disruption and some labor issues. The temporary shutdown at HUVRs Haridwar plant due to COVID issues did not affect operations owing to adequate inventory buffers.
The company targets ~INR1b revenue or higher for the Pioneer categories over the next The Core business (Fevicol and sub-brands Fevikwik, M-Seal, and Fevicryl) is likely to grow at 12x GDP. This means that and Bazaar (C&B;) and B2B products over the next three to four years, by the end of which the Growth and Pioneer categories are likely to comprise around half of sales. The companys clutter-breaking marketing is also Compared with the erstwhile approach of focusing on a multitude of geographies, including the US and Brazil, in recent years, the company has decided to focus on certain emerging markets with high growth potential and where an India-like All the Pioneer category brands are in the nascent categories; thus, the company is trying to grow the categories using innovation and technology and by leveraging on R&D; is gaining increasing importance, with a nearly 2.5x increase seen in R&D; spends over the past five years.
Delhi Transport Corporation plans to induct an additional 1,000 CNG buses (~116 buses would be added by end-Sep20) by the end of this fiscal. Delhi currently has ~6,000 buses totally, and IGL expects ~2,500 CNG buses to be introduced over next 2-3 years (apart from 1,000 mentioned above). Also, IGL expects EBITDA margin growth of 34% per year going ahead (as the company expects gas prices to remain benign in the near term). IGL anticipates 34 court hearings for finalizing the valuation part of Gurugram, and expects the deal to be completed by end-FY21. Gurugram has volumes potential of 22.5mmscmd and is currently operating at 0.4 0.6mmscmd. The company does not plan on reducing planned capex, although it may review capex during the mid-year review. Indraprastha Gas Capex from FY22 onwards could be ~INR12b, and expect another ~INR3b capex over the next two years if Gurugram is awarded.
PVR has opened cinemas in Sri Lanka and has seen good response, with ATP Pending capex of INR400m would be put toward the completion of 30 screens (in the final stages) and of INR750m toward 28 screens (in the fit- PVRs near-term profitability and business scale would be affected as cinemas would be the last to open and would operate with a much reduced capacity and Rental waivers come as a great relief for the company; however, other operational charges, such as sanitization costs, would increase post the reopening of the cinemas, along with expected decline in revenues in the high- PVRs remains comfortable in terms of liquidity, with INR5.5b in cash (INR3b proceeds from rights issue) and INR1.6b in undrawn credit lines available from The recent shift in movies to OTT platforms and increased viewership raises concerns regarding increased competition from the OTT medium.
14 September 2020 Indonesia posted healthy 17% EBITDA (adj.) growth to INR4.5b. Conversely, India EBITDA (adj.) fell 4.2% to INR14.2b and GAUM EBITDA (adj.) declined 14.6% to INR2.4b. Declines in India and GAUM were primarily attributable to the advent of COVID-19 in 4QFY20. For the first three quarters of FY20, India witnessed (adj.) EBITDA growth of 2% to INR11.2b, while GAUM EBITDA (adj.) remained flattish at INR2.
11 September 2019 by deepening the partner network and enhancing the tie-up with ICICIB, 2) increasing wallet share of clients with a focus on ARPU, 3) providing a better engagement experience, 4) introducing digital agility, and 5) enhancing operational efficiency (i.e. reducing the C/I ratio). ISEC acquired 0.45m customers in FY20, largely similar to earlier years. While market share in terms of NSE-active clients improved 40bp YoY to 10% in FY20, the company is focused on increasing it further. ICICI Securities Over the past two years, ISEC has been focused on improving its digital capabilities and thus enhancing customer experience. The network of IFAs, sub-brokers, investment advisors (IAs), and accounts payables (APs) grew 32% YoY to 9,400+ in FY20, which further increased to 12,500+ in 1QFY21. As a result, the number of clients sourced through partnerships grew 70% YoY. ISEC launched a number of new propositions in the year.
With the generic version of Focalin XR being approved, GRAN now has 30 ANDA approvals (28 final and 2 tentative). It is used for the treatment of Focalin XR and its generic equivalent had US sales of USD556m for 12- There are 5 companies having final approval for this product, other than GRAN. Accordingly, we expect price erosion of 7-10% with market share gradually building up to 10% over 12 months post the launch of the product. This could provide meaningful upside to GRANs ANDA-led Formulations GRAN has multiple growth levers, such as (a) the ANDA pipeline for US generics (with some products having limited competition opportunity), which should drive an increase in the share of formulations for developed markets, (b) enhanced reach for core molecules, and (c) reduced opex through backward integration.
Thus, we expect value growth in the Lighting segment to follow volume growth while margins should be on an uptrend 2QFY21 onwards (full quarter impact expected to reflect in 3QFY21 only). been under stress for the past two years now owing to price erosion at the industry level. Thus, despite the double-digit volume growth, Lighting revenues have dropped by 5% CAGR over FY18-20. Thus, though the Lighting segment formed 25% of Cromptons turnover in FY20, the segmental PBIT contribution was limited to just 9%. Cromptons ECD segment has been performing well with double-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters prior to the COVID-19 outbreak in Mar20. The margin performance is commendable and is the best in the industry. Since Cromptons categories have higher replacement demand, we see higher probability of steady performance in the coming quarters and in FY22E (v/s negative impact for peers from weak consumer demand).
We now expect BHEL to report loss in FY21E and have also reduced our FY22E earnings estimate by 21% to factor poor execution and a weak ordering environment. EBIT loss stood at INR2.5b (v/s profit of INR349m Order book (OB) was flat YoY at INR1081b, with OB/rev at 5.7x. Total receivables remain elevated at ~INR360b, of which 12% are from the private sector, 48% from state entities, 33% from the center, and 7% pertain cost at ~25% of sales. In FY20, working capital deteriorated to 99% of sales from 65% in FY19 due to higher inventory, slow movement in receivables, and poor We now expect BHEL to report loss in FY21E and have also reduced our FY22E earnings estimate by 21% to factor poor execution and a weak ordering environment. While the company has received EoIs from three major OEMs regarding its ongoing diversification drive, we believe any material financial impact is still some time away.
10 September 2020 business-level FCF generation, b) the monetization of non-core assets, and c) top-up equity (if required). revenue improvement, b) cost-cutting, and c) capex control plans laid out for four key businesses (incl. Capex plans laid out for FY21 (GBP2.5b for JLR and INR15b for the India business) would not see any material change in the foreseeable future. As the monetization of non-core assets begins with the Tata Technologies and Hitachi JV (construction equipment), it would look at other assets as well. However, currently it has no plans to monetize its stake in Tata Sons. The partnership between the PV segment and JLR is not the key part of its deleveraging strategy. Demand recovery is visible across markets in the US, UK, EU, and China. Only RoW markets are yet to see recovery. JLR is seeing an additional boost from strong demand for the recently launched Evoque and Defender.
9 September 2020 Reliance Industries (RIL) has announced that Silver Lake would invest INR75b in Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd (RRVL) at pre-money equity value of INR4.21t. At an estimated net debt of INR100b, the enterprise value stands at INR4.31t. This implies 1.75% stake at post-money equity value of INR4.29t. We understand this is fresh capital infusion in the company unlike the stake sale done in Jio Platforms. Media reports suggest that more investments could follow in RRVL. These reports are in line with the Chairman and Managing Directors comments in the RIL AGM about strategic stake sale in RRVL, which would aid in nurturing its new ventures like Jiomart. Silver Lake has already invested INR101b in RIL (it has picked up 2.08% stake in Jio Platforms). With combined AUM of >USD60b focused on global tech-enabled opportunities, Silver Lake is a leader in large-scale technology investing.
9 September 2020 primarily due to liquidation of BS-IV inventory, which led to decline in inventory by INR14.5b YoY to INR12.4b in FY20. This resulted in inventory days declining by 10 days YoY to 37 days. Thus, earnings to Standalone free cash flow (post interest) remained negative at During FY20, the company capitalized expenses of INR2.9b, 43.6%/3.8% of R&D;/gross block). This primarily pertains to BSVI, AVTR (Modular Platform) and the LCV project. These mainly comprised (a) employee benefit expense of INR0.7b, (b) finance cost of INR0.3b, and (c) other expense of INR3.6b. Total intangibles mainly due to in-house developed technical knowhow of INR8.2b.
9 September 2020 We interacted with Essel Propacks (ESEL) management to learn and discuss some key factors such as (a) future growth drivers, (b) improving performance in Europe, (c) gradual shift from plastic to laminated tubes, and (d) growing At the peak of COVID-19, ESEL launched a new product Hand Sanitizer tubes in just 15 days to meet the sudden demand surge. This new product segment under Personal care is expected to provide steady volumes, as Sanitizers are increasingly becoming a part of daily consumption. Under Phase-I of project Phoenix, ESEL managed to increase EBITDA margin by 180bp YoY to 20.2% in FY20. ESELs integrated operations, right from laminating-to printing to tubing makes it a one-stop solutions for its clients, thereby allowing the company to form long-term partnerships. Further, the companys 7-stage pipeline development process/customer acquisition, has led to signing-up of several new customers in Oral and Personal care segments, which should be a key growth driver.
8 September 2020 The complete impact of the COVID-19-led lockdown was seen in the 1QFY21 financial performance, with billings decline of 44% YoY. The drag in revenues (-10.4% YoY) was curtailed due to the subscription- based model of the business. INFOE has shown a high resilience in the margins (+420bp YoY) on account of superior cost optimization. For the first time, the company was able to show gains from investee companies, primarily led by positive contribution margins from Zomato. Traffic on INFOEs operating portals has inched up to pre-COVID levels. Given the companys market positioning, multi-dimensional growth may be expected across its core businesses in the medium-to-long term. We expect long-term growth trends to play out at its operating entities, whose margins continue to inch up on high operating leverage. Furthermore, led by an inclination for profitability in investee companies, we expect consolidated losses to be curtailed over time.
8 September 2020 Oil & Gas Prior to the National Green Tribunals (NGT) mandate to ban coal gasifiers at Morbi, GUJGAs margins and volumes were highly volatile. This was primarily driven by competition from coal gasifiers. However, post the NGTs ban, the companys volumes and margins (excluding one off in 1QFY21) stabilized. The low LPG prices have enabled few consumers to install LPG equipment at their premises. The total installed capacity currently stands at ~0.6mmscmd for LPG. usage during the monsoons increases to ~0.6mmscmd, while it stands at ~0.3mmscmd for the rest of the year (forming merely ~3-4% of total volumes). Gujarat Gas Since the implementation of the blanket ban on coal gasifiers at Morbi, total industrial sales have increased. Combined with that, BG volumes have also come down slightly from 2.5mmscmd to 2.2mmscmd (the company currently has 3.2mmscmd of long-term contracts).
